The hottest import default broke the supply chain,

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Import defaults cut off the supply chain. The decline of the rubber market is not over.

Import defaults cut off the supply chain. The decline of the rubber market is not over.

under the background of the global economic recession and the slowdown of China's economic growth, the international and domestic natural rubber production areas are in the peak season of rubber cutting, and the global car market has shown signs of entering the winter. Some auto giants have laid off workers, reduced production, and lowered annual targets. Domestic buyers have defaulted on imports in the international rubber market, which makes it difficult for the rubber market to stop falling

among them, Tokyo rubber fell sharply unilaterally, and the continuous index fell from 278 yen/kg on September 26 to 162 yen/kg on October 16, a decrease of 116 yen/kg, a relative decrease of 41.73%. Shanghai Rubber fell by the limit for many consecutive days, of which the price of ru901, the main contract, fell from 19020 yuan on September 26 to 13180 yuan on October 16, a decrease of 5840 yuan, a relative decrease of 30.7%

12.0 import default leads to supply chain disruption

some traders and importers in China have defaulted, and the capital link of the whole supply chain is being tested. According to the author's understanding, recently, some traders and small factories in China have begun to default on foreign suppliers, on the grounds that they can't bear the current huge losses. Fortunately, at present, large domestic tire enterprises can still maintain their brand and market image, and I haven't heard that large factories have begun to default. Natural rubber trading in Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea and India is still in normal progress

at present, the domestic rubber market has basically fallen into panic, chaos and stagnation, and buyers dare not buy again, because the high price goods in the early stage have not been digested, and new purchase orders are worried about the continuous decline of rubber prices; Overseas sellers dare not sell again, because there is a risk of Chinese buyers' default, the market continues to decline, and default events will continue to occur, so they dare not sell new contracts at all

in view of the current situation in the Chinese market, the major rubber manufacturers in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have stopped quoting to the Chinese market, and the international reputation of China's natural rubber industry is being seriously questioned. Next week, the Singapore rubber Union will wipe the unpainted surface clean and then wipe it again with cotton yarn dipped in a little engine oil. An emergency meeting will be held to study China's breach of contract; The rubber associations of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries are conducting urgent consultations and paying close attention to the dynamics of China's rubber market

market participants said that with the arrival of low-cost raw materials delivered in November and December, the cost of tires will decline significantly. Due to the sharp decline of China's tire supply of more than 30%, the global tire sales market is not necessarily overly pessimistic, because the global car ownership and new volume are still continuing, but the growth rate has slowed significantly. At present, the supply chain of natural rubber is still reasonable, and the era of huge profits for rubber farmers is over, but the profit is still considerable for its cost; The processing plant has processing profit at this price; Tyre factories will also be more suitable at this price; Bridgestone, the world's largest tire company, has been actively buying every day in recent days, and the cost has been continuously diluted

the demand for rubber tends to be weak

the risk of the U.S. financial market is gradually shifting from the subprime mortgage crisis to the capital market, and may be transferred to the real economy. As a terminal consumer industry of industrial natural rubber, the automotive market will suffer a heavy blow, and the global automotive market will shrink. Among them, in August, the U.S. automotive sales fell by as much as double digits, and the total sales of new cars was 1249793, which was lower than the same period last year for 10 consecutive months. In August, the sales volume of European passenger cars decreased by 15.6%, while the sales volume in the previous eight months fell by 3.9%. In August, the sales volume of Indian passenger car market decreased by 4.3% year-on-year to 94600 units, and China's automobile production from January to August was 6.548 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, 2.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate from January to July; Automobile sales volume was 6.478 million units, an increase of 13.9%, down 2.7 percentage points from the growth rate of 16.7% from January to July. This will significantly reduce the demand and consumption of natural rubber and have a substantial negative effect on the supply-demand relationship of natural rubber

the market of Shanghai Jiao is very bearish

the futures prices of the short-term and long-term contracts of Shanghai Jiao hit a new low in the medium and long term, significantly expanding the room for future market decline, while the futures prices were closed to the limit, only sold, but not bought, resulting in an extreme unilateral market in the futures market. The significant reduction in trading volume indicates that in the falling limit price, only long speculative funds actively stop losses and cut positions, admit losses and get out, and short incremental funds expand positions to suppress, and there are still no signs of short speculative funds actively covering profits and multi-party incremental funds increasing positions. The position only decreased slightly, which also reflected the lack of liquidity in the market. The rubber market was shrouded in a strong bearish atmosphere of "Shanghai affordable housing building energy efficiency design advice" (hereinafter referred to as "advice")

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