The hottest import supply increased, and Shanghai

With the increase of import supply, Shanghai Jiaotong built a triple top and was bearish to 14500 yuan

last week, the price of industrial products in the international market continued to rise, of which the price of crude oil in New York increased by more than 5%, while the price of copper in London increased by more than 4%. However, the price of domestic industrial products showed a stagflation trend, of which Shanghai Jiao fell by more than 3% in the week, while Shanghai copper only rose by more than 100 yuan per ton compared with the closing of the previous week. Coincidentally, the prices of Dalian soybeans and CBOT soybeans in the agricultural products (000061) market also deviated from each other. It can be seen that the common characteristics of domestic commodity prices are very obvious

however, the author believes that there is a slightly different background between the internal and external deviation of agricultural product prices and the internal and external deviation of industrial product prices. Last week, the weakening of domestic agricultural prices was mainly due to the pressure that the State Reserve may sell reserves. Due to the continuous decline of domestic pork prices, the ratio of pig to grain once fell below the warning line of 6:1. At this time, the market heard that the government would put 15million tons of corn inventory on the market at the price of 1500 yuan/ton. At the same time, the government will also launch the purchase and storage plan of domestic frozen pork to support the domestic pig industry. Although the rumor of selling reserves has not been confirmed, the psychological impact on the market is objective. Therefore, the price of agricultural products failed to follow the rise of CBOT

in terms of industrial products, the market has no pressure from selling and storing. On the contrary, both non-ferrous metals and natural rubber are within the national collection and storage time frame. The author believes that the reasons for the weakening of industrial product prices mainly come from two aspects:

until normal. First, the change in market expectations brought about by the stop of the decline of the US dollar exchange rate. Over the past two weeks, the dollar index has fluctuated on the 80 line. Judging from the situation, after three months of continuous decline, the US dollar index showed support in the line of 80. This is a phased warning for investors who have long been bearish on the dollar and bullish on commodity prices. Even if it is a long-term bearish trend of the US dollar, the decline of the US dollar is a complex process. The stabilization of the US dollar means that the rise of commodity prices will lose the impetus brought by the decline of the US dollar, thus changing the market's expectations of continued bullish commodities, while the expectations of the domestic market are often ahead of the performance of the external market

second, in China, 10million cubic meters of wood is used to make packaging materials for motor products every year. The Customs released the import data in May, of which copper imports hit a record high of 420000 tons, while natural rubber imports were 140000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons year-on-year. As a result of the record copper import volume, the copper inventory in Shanghai stock exchange continued to rise, which showed that the domestic copper supply had been in a situation of oversupply, which brought significant pressure to the rise of copper prices. In terms of rubber, there was an abnormal increase in domestic rubber imports in April and may this year, which made the year-on-year decline in rubber imports converge to less than 10% in the first half of the year. At the same time, rubber imports in May increased by about 70000 tons year-on-year, setting a year-on-year growth record in recent years. The abnormal increase in imports has not been supported by end consumer demand, and China's tire production fell by more than 20% year-on-year in August. It can be seen that there is an imbalance between demand and supply in the rubber market

in addition, from a technical point of view, last week, after the 0911 contract hit a new high of 16250 yuan/ton in the year, Shanghai Jiaotong fell rapidly, and the technical form has shown a triple top pattern. At the same time, the domestic spot price fell to 14 to prevent rats from entering the indoor front line of 000 yuan/ton with dense lines, which also forces the demand for further adjustment of rubber price. The author suggests that the short selling operation should be considered in the near future. John Hart, general manager of Shanghai PM, said that the rubber aftermarket should be bearish to 14500 yuan/ton

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